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An introduction to technical analysis explained: Most experienced traders know that if they understand the state of the market, their trading will be much simpler than if they cannot tell the basic condition of the market. The most important distinction is that which seems the simplest: is the market trending or is it in congestion? Sometimes this distinction seems simple, as in this example: We see the price bars moving from lower left to the upper right of the chart, with successive lows getting higher and successive highs getting higher as well, and so even a novice would say that the market is trending upwards Similarly sometimes congestions seem well defined and easy to spot: Here the market is clearly not making any progress at all, and is moving sideways across the page. Most people would have little trouble saying this market is in congestion. But on the margins and in places of transition, at the beginnings and endings of different market states, then the market condition can be more confusing. Furthermore the determination of trend or congestion can vary dramatically in different timeframe. A trend on a daily chart may be merely part of a congestion on a weekly chart, and an hourly congestion may in fact consist of a sharp 5-minute series of trends. A technical analysis explained course can untangle these trend-congestion confusions the very first requirement is to have a clear definition of what a trend is, and what a congestion is. The standard technical analysis definition of "higher highs and higher lows" will not cut the mustard, since we need also to know how many bars it takes to make a trend? will one do? Or must we have five? And so forth. Similarly the definition of congestion is somewhat constrained if we rely only upon highs and lows to tell us if we are in congesting or not, What if we have a simple pause in a fast uptrend and experience an inside day? The trend resumes immediately and we gain nothing by saying that the market has changed its "state" for that one single bar. Similarly sometimes congestions seem well defined and easy to spot: Here the market is clearly not making any progress at all, and is moving sideways across the page. Most people would have little trouble saying this market is in congestion. But on the margins and in places of transition, at the beginnings and endings of different market states, then the market condition can be more confusing. Furthermore the determination of trend or congestion can vary dramatically in different timeframe. A trend on a daily chart may be merely part of a congestion on a weekly chart, and an hourly congestion may in fact consist of a sharp 5-minute series of trends. To untangle these trend-congestion confusions the very first requirement is to have a clear definition of what a trend is, and what a congestion is. The standard technical analysis definition of "higher highs and higher lows" will not cut the mustard, since we need also to know how many bars it takes to make a trend? will one do? Or must we have five? And so forth. Similarly the definition of congestion is somewhat constrained if we rely only upon highs and lows to tell us if we are in congesting or not, What if we have a simple pause in a fast uptrend and experience an inside day? The trend resumes immediately and we gain nothing by saying that the market has changed its "state" for that one single bar. I have found the trend/congestion definitions of Drummond Geometry to be coherent, consistent, and helpful. They take into consideration every market state, are sensitive to quick changes in existing conditions, and can be very useful as the trader considers his entry and exit points. In Drummond Geometry technical analysis explained, a trend is defined as starting when we see three closes on one side of the PLdot. (The PLdot is a three-period moving average of the average of the high, low, and close, displaced forward one bar.) This definition has been found empirically to be very close to the ideal as tool for determining a trend. Trends defined this way start quickly, as soon as new energy enters the market. Because it reacts to new trends so well, it gives excellent support and guidance in trade entries to the trend-following trader. Drummond Geometry further distinguishes some additional sub-categories of congestion: congestion entrance, congesting action, and congestion exit. These refinements need not concern us here, and can be discussed in another article; suffice it to say that the finer distinctions of congestions give the trader a great deal of additional support. What advantage does this objective definition of trend vs. congestion give us as traders? It gives us a leg up in determining where we place our entrance signals, and how we define our target exit signals. The object is always to buy support and sell resistance, but the location of this support and resistance is located in different places in congestions than in a trend. In an up- trend, support levels are rising and one can enter the market and buy the appropriate trend line. I like the PLdot charted as a line and use that as an entry signal in trends as it is reliable, constant, and sensitive to changes in the trend. In a congestion, traders can buy or sell the confines of congestion as the market oscillates back and forth between these limits of the congestion. For the topic of technical analysis explained, there is much more to be said about how to place trades in either a trend or a congestion market state. Furthermore the addition of multiple time periods and the relationship of trends and congestions within these timeframes can give the trader a great deal of structure within which to place high-probability trades. Technical analysis tools can help a great deal, and trend definitions are the starting place. So it repays the effort to get a rock-solid, objective and universally-valid definition of trend and congestion market states before proceeding deeper into technical analysis. Technical Analysis Explained: Congestion Entrance ExaminedHere's a look at the Technical Analysis Explained series where we speak of congestion entrance, a type of trading . Movements in the market occur from trend to congestion and back again, in a continuous cycle, constantly going on over and over again . As long as the markets have been around, this has occurred and no doubt it will continue happening as long as markets are around . The only times this cycle isn't seen are in times of intervention, regulation, or artificial constraint , such as things like price limits, price fixing, and market regulation - and even then the disruption is temporary . As long as there is variation in supply and demand , and as long as people are coming together in trade ad they act on opportunity and value as they perceive it, trends and congestions will continue in the markets. Various names can be used for this. In some cases it's referred to as disequilibrium and equilibrium , still others speak of vertical and horizontal movement talking about the way the charts move , there are some that talk about the upward movement as distribution and development being a sideways movement . But it is all the same . When things are moved in a direction progressively, this is a trend; congestions are market periods where the market oscillates between support and resistance and it's movement is horizontal on the pages. In some of the previous articles in the Technical Analysis Explained series that we have a clear definition of what a trend is - it includes on one side of the Pldot, three bars that show up consecutively. Because a congestion is exactly opposite of a trend , we expect our definition of a congestion to be simple as well , and it really is . Congestion occurs in the market when for three periods it doesn't close on one side of the Pldot . How could it be different ? We say the market is either in a trend or not , we already have the definition of a trend , so a congestion is basically everything else. Markets are either in congestion, or they are in a trend. There are three different lessons that are a part of congestion, as we define congestion in three different forms - congestion action, congestion entrance, and congestion exit. Here is a simple look at these definitions . Congestion entrance trading will occur after there is a trend in the market, with three or more closes in a row on the side of the Pldot, and then the next close occurs on the other side of the Pldot . This bar , closing on a different side of the Pldot than the other previous three, is known as the congestion's first bar, and the first bar after a trend . Congestion action trading happens when the market goes back and forth , and as it goes forward, it closes on either one side of the Pldot or the other . We'll go into more detail on this in the next part of the Technical Analysis Explained series. Congestion exit trading happens when the market is about ready to go into a new trend . That makes sense, does it not? And so if the market violates one of the confines of congestion , by the dotted line or even the block level, then the market is manifesting congestion exit trading . When it comes to congestion exit trading, there is a lot to say, and it is a most attractive topic . However, this is for another article and we won't go into more detail right here . Watch for more articles about this . Trading Congestion Action - Technical Analysis Explained (Part 1)We speak here of congestion action trading . A market that is in congestion action is one that swings back and forth between the confines of congestion, between support and resistance (or, in Drummond Geometry terms, between the dotted line and the block level ). This is action in the market that happens in congestion , and when no trend run is occurring . The level that was created by the preceding up trend's highest high is what is referred to as the Dotted Line, or the lowest low created by the preceding down trend . In an uptrend the first bar that closes on the PLdot's opposite side is known as the first Block Level, or the high of the very first bar on a down trend that closes on the other side of the PLdot. Once you have a sufficient understanding of the patterns, characteristics, and theory of congestion action trading, you can really make money. It is like harvesting a crop, or slaughtering the fatted calf . Congestion action trading can be real bread-and-butter trading .... and even more, you can purchase a table for the bread , and for the table you can buy a house, and then an estate for the house , and a car, driver, plane, boat, and anything else you want . Essentially, you have a huge potential to make money with this type of trading, if you take congestion action trading and learn all you can. What is congestion action trading ? One effect of technical analysis explained in this way with Drummond Geometry is that the definitions are clear . Price is either in a trend run or it is not . When after more than three closes are on the PLdots one side and then it closes on the PLdots other side, this is not a trend run . When the market is not in a trend run, then it is in congestion . It's very clear and simple . That first bar when price closes on the opposite side of the trending dot is the congestion entrance bar . Then it can be said that the market is in congestion by definition . We know when the market first enters congestion a dotted line as well as a block level get created. This particular block level if the very first block level of this congestion. This means, congestion action is what this market action is called which gets started with the congestion entrance bar and goes on for a time that is not defined until on one side of the PLdot there are three closes, which is the start of another trend. Let's have a look at the limits of congestion and how they're defined with technical analysis explained, as well as how expansion can occur . Congestion action defines the parameters of congestion , which may be called the confines of congestion. You will remember the confines of congestion get defined by the block level and dotted line, and the congestion entrance bar is what establishes the first block level . There can be an expansion of these levels . If prices goes outside the dotted line, or outside of the block level , while still in congestion ( without three closes being on the PLdot's one side ), then price is redefining the confines of congestion and there can be established an even larger congestion . Before a new trend run occurs, this can happen various times. We will continue this discussion about congestion trading in our next article in the technical analysis explained series. |
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